The global hydrogen economy is accelerating toward a pivotal crossroads. As nations race to decarbonize and establish international hydrogen supply chains, a critical question emerges: which carrier technology will dominate the long-distance trade routes that will define the energy landscape of tomorrow? Two contenders have emerged from the pack, Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers (LOHCs) and ammonia, each promising to solve hydrogen's most stubborn challenge: how to move it efficiently across oceans and continents (Zhou et al., 2024).
The stakes are enormous. By 2050, approximately one-third of global hydrogen demand, equivalent to 150 million tonnes annually, will be satisfied through international trade. While 55% of this hydrogen will travel by retrofitted pipelines, the remaining 45% will be shipped, predominantly as ammonia. Yet this forecast may underestimate LOHCs' disruptive potential as the technology matures (Global hydrogen trade, IRENA).
The LOHC Advantage: Safety Meets Infrastructure Compatibility
LOHCs represent an elegant chemical solution to hydrogen's transportation puzzle. These liquid organic compounds chemically bond with hydrogen through hydrogenation, creating stable molecules that can be transported using existing petroleum infrastructure without the extreme conditions required by other methods (Li et al., 2024; Zhou et al., 2024).
The safety profile of LOHCs is compelling. Unlike ammonia, LOHCs are non-toxic, non-explosive, and significantly less flammable than liquid hydrogen. This makes them particularly attractive for urban distribution networks and consumer-level applications where public safety concerns are paramount. Recent research demonstrates that LOHC technology becomes more cost-effective than compressed hydrogen at distances exceeding 150 km, with levelized costs of transported hydrogen ranging from 1.49 to 1.90 EUR/kg at 300 km (Cava et al., 2025; Honeywell, UOP).
The Reversibility Revolution
A key advantage of LOHCs lies in their reversible nature. The carrier liquid can be reused repeatedly over many cycles without degradation, enabling a circular economy for hydrogen transport. Common LOHC systems like methylcyclohexane/toluene and dibenzyltoluene (DBT) have been extensively researched for large-scale applications. The dehydrogenation process occurs at relatively moderate temperatures around 300°C, considerably lower than ammonia's cracking requirements (Jangir & Jagirdar, 2025; Ammonia vs. LOHCs: Reliable Hydrogen Transport Explained).
Companies like Hydrogenious in Germany and Chiyoda in Japan are already deploying LOHC technology commercially, with systems ranging from hydrogen refueling stations to hydrogen-powered ships and trains. Honeywell has also entered the market, promoting LOHCs as enabling "more cost-effective long-distance transport" that can "match international supply and demand for hydrogen" (Tsogt et al., 2024; Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier, Honeywell, Li et al., 2024).
Ammonia's Incumbent Edge: Infrastructure and Energy Density
Ammonia carries a formidable advantage that LOHCs struggle to match: it's already here. With a hydrogen content of 17.6 wt% and volumetric density of 121 kg H₂/m³, nearly double that of liquid hydrogen, ammonia offers efficient, large-scale storage and transport capabilities. The global ammonia industry already moves millions of tonnes annually through established production facilities, storage terminals, and a dedicated fleet of carriers (Zhou, 2025, Demand for ammonia carriers set to spike over next decade).
This infrastructure maturity translates directly into economics. Recent analyses show ammonia holds approximately a 20% cost advantage over liquid hydrogen for long-distance maritime transport, with costs of €2.2 versus €2.8 per kg H₂. For an example 240 km journey from port to end-user, transporting hydrogen as ammonia costs just $0.18/kg compared to $2.18 for compressed hydrogen gas (The Future of Liquid Hydrogen Carriers: Economics vs Ammonia; Ammonia – The key to unlocking hydrogen’s potential.. - The Renewable Energy Institute).
The market is responding accordingly. Rystad Energy projects that traded volumes in clean ammonia will reach 76 million tonnes by the mid-2030s, a four-fold increase over 2020 levels, potentially exceeding 120 million tonnes annually by 2050. An estimated 174 export terminals will focus primarily on converting hydrogen into ammonia by 2035, accounting for 62% of hydrogen exports (Demand for ammonia carriers set to spike over next decade).
The Ammonia-Powered Shipping Revolution
Maritime decarbonization is driving ammonia adoption at an unprecedented pace. Ammonia-fueled bulk carriers could be deployed on routes like South Africa-Europe as soon as 2029, scaling toward full decarbonization by 2035. Major ports including Rotterdam and Saldanha Bay are developing ammonia bunkering infrastructure, with Saldanha positioned to become a long-term green ammonia production hub ( Global Maritime Forum)
Recent techno-economic analyses indicate that for production capacities of 10 kilotonnes of hydrogen per year, ammonia emerges as the most cost-efficient option for transport and international shipping. Japan and Germany have already adapted their national hydrogen strategies to account for ammonia's expanding role in achieving net-zero emission targets (Aditiya et al., 2025; Demand for ammonia carriers set to spike over next decade).
The Critical Weaknesses: Where Each System Falters
#LOHC's Gravimetric Challenge
LOHCs face a fundamental physics problem: low hydrogen content per mass of loaded carrier. Current LOHC systems carry only about 6% hydrogen by weight, meaning 94% of the transported mass is the organic carrier itself. This creates a double penalty, the carrier must be shipped back to the export location empty, substantially increasing total transportation costs compared to ammonia (Salmon & Bañares-Alcántara, 2021; Proton Ventures | What is the best hydrogen carrier?).
Over intercontinental distances of approximately 10,000 km, this lower volumetric and gravimetric energy density substantially increases costs. Additionally, LOHCs rely heavily on expensive platinum group elements (PGEs) for catalysts, which face high demand across the hydrogen production sector. While research into non-precious metal catalysts is advancing, commercial viability at scale remains uncertain (Salmon & Bañares-Alcántara, 2021; Cabrera et al., 2024)
#Ammonia's Toxicity and Energy Penalty
Ammonia's toxicity presents serious operational challenges. It requires additional safety measures, specialized crew training, and robust containment systems, particularly concerning for urban distribution and consumer applications. The pungent odor and corrosive properties demand careful handling protocols that add complexity and cost ( Hydrogen and ammonia as next-generation marine fuels in line with IMO 2050; Zhou, 2025)
The energy penalty for ammonia cracking is severe. Converting ammonia back to hydrogen requires temperatures exceeding 550°C, and the overall round-trip efficiency of using ammonia as a hydrogen carrier is approximately 25%. This means that utilizing ammonia as a hydrogen carrier is "one of the most inefficient ways to transport hydrogen," with total energy demand reaching 132 kWh per kg H₂ compared to hydrogen's energy content of 33 kWh/kg (Round-trip Efficiency of Ammonia as a Renewable Energy Transportation Media ; Burckhardt Compression)
Recent studies calculate ammonia cracking efficiency at approximately 76%, with total losses estimated at 1.41 MWh per ton ammonia in best-case scenarios. This represents a 15% loss of hydrogen during the cracking process alone. While some analyses assume waste heat can supply cracking energy, few applications have waste heat available at temperatures exceeding 550°C (Round-trip Efficiency of Ammonia as a Renewable Energy Transportation Media; Salmon & Bañares-Alcántara, 2021)
The Verdict: Context Determines the Champion
The "winner" of the hydrogen carrier competition depends entirely on the specific use case, distance, and infrastructure context, there is no universal solution (Genge & Müsgens, 2025).
When Ammonia Wins
Ammonia dominates in three critical scenarios. First, for large-scale intercontinental shipping, ammonia's established infrastructure, higher hydrogen density, and elimination of return shipping make it economically superior. Second, when hydrogen can be used directly as ammonia without cracking, particularly in maritime fuel applications, power generation, and certain industrial processes, the energy penalty disappears and ammonia becomes highly competitive. Third, for routes where ammonia infrastructure already exists or is being developed (major ports, established trade lanes), the capital cost advantage is decisive ( Proton Ventures | What is the best hydrogen carrier? ; Global hydrogen trade, IRENA ; Ammonia vs. LOHCs: Reliable Hydrogen Transport Explained)
By 2040, competitive ammonia suppliers like Morocco, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates will benefit from dramatically reduced costs driven by falling electricity, electrolyzer, and conversion technology prices. Saudi Arabia's NEOM Green Hydrogen project, converting hydrogen into ammonia for global export to Europe and Asia, exemplifies this trajectory ( Hydrogen Council Global Hydrogen Compass 2025; Genge & Müsgens, 2025)
When LOHCs Win
LOHCs excel in fundamentally different contexts. For distributed, regional transport networks where safety and compatibility with existing fuel infrastructure are paramount, LOHCs offer compelling advantages. Their non-toxic nature makes them suitable for urban distribution and consumer-level applications where ammonia's hazards would be prohibitive (LOHC technology: accelerating the deployment of hydrogen storage and fuel cell electric vehicles | Umicore; Ammonia vs. LOHCs: Reliable Hydrogen Transport Explained)
At distances beyond 150 km but below intercontinental scales, LOHCs become increasingly cost-competitive, particularly when electricity prices exceed 0.22 EUR/kWh or when capital costs for hydrogenation/dehydrogenation units are minimized. For applications requiring long-term storage without boil-off losses, LOHCs provide advantages that volatile carriers cannot match (Cava et al., 2025; Cai et al., 2025).
Crucially, LOHCs position themselves advantageously for the 55% of hydrogen trade expected to occur via pipeline by 2050. As that hydrogen emerges from pipelines and requires distribution to end-users, LOHC technology could capture significant market share in the "last mile" of hydrogen delivery (Global hydrogen trade, IRENA).
The Emerging Hybrid Future
Rather than a winner-takes-all scenario, the hydrogen economy is likely to embrace both technologies in complementary roles. Ammonia will dominate large-scale maritime shipping and direct-use applications, while LOHCs will carve out market share in regional long-distance distribution, safety-critical applications, and flexible logistics scenarios where hydrogen needs to be stored and released at different locations ( Ammonia vs. LOHCs: Reliable Hydrogen Transport Explained)
Research from 2025 suggests that by 2040, ammonia will primarily serve direct-use applications as hydrogen consumers increasingly shift to direct hydrogen supplies through pipelines. This implies LOHCs may find their optimal niche not in competing head-to-head with ammonia on transoceanic routes, but in serving the distributed networks that will connect pipeline terminals to end-users (Genge & Müsgens, 2025).
Policymakers should prioritize pipeline infrastructure for hydrogen distribution while cautiously investing in ammonia's short- to medium-term infrastructure advantages, limiting long-term reliance on ammonia as a hydrogen carrier to mitigate stranded asset risks. Meanwhile, continued investment in LOHC catalyst development, particularly non-precious metal alternatives, could dramatically improve the technology's economics and expand its addressable market (Cabrera et al., 2024; Cai et al., 2025).
The long-haul trade war between LOHCs and ammonia isn't about declaring a single victor, it's about recognizing that the hydrogen economy is vast enough, complex enough, and diverse enough to accommodate multiple solutions. The carriers that ultimately prevail will be those that match their inherent characteristics to the specific demands of their deployment contexts. In this competition, both technologies are already winning in their respective domains.
References
- Zhou, M., Miao, Y., Gu, Y., & Xie, Y. (2024). Recent Advances in Reversible Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier Systems: From Hydrogen Carriers to Catalysts. Advanced Materials, 36(37), 2311355. https://doi.org/10.1002/adma.202311355
- Li, H., Zhang, X., Zhang, C., Ding, Z., & Jin, X. (2024). Application and Analysis of Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier (LOHC) Technology in Practical Projects. Energies, 17(8), 1940. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17081940
- Ahn, B., Sohn, H., Liu, J. J., & Won, W. (2024). A system-level analysis for long-distance hydrogen transport using liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs): A case study in Australia–Korea. ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, 12(23), 8630–8641. DOI: 10.1021/acssuschemeng.4c00330
- Tsogt, N., Gbadago, D. Q., & Hwang, S. (2024). Exploring the potential of liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) system for efficient hydrogen storage and Transport: A Techno-Economic and energy analysis perspective. Energy Conversion and Management, 299, 117856. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117856
- Zhou, Y. (2025). Advances and Challenges in Using Ammonia as a Hydrogen Carrier for a Sustainable Energy Future. MATEC Web of Conferences, 410, 01035. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202541001035
- Aditiya, H. B., Panuganti, S. R., Hsia, I. C. C., Mat, T. M. U. T., Mahlia, T. M. I., & Huang, Z. (2025). Levelised cost of hydrogen for domestic transport and stationary applications. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 139, 291–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.05.216
- Salmon, N., & Bañares-Alcántara, R. (2021). Green ammonia as a spatial energy vector: A review. Sustainable Energy & Fuels, 5(11), 2814–2839. https://doi.org/10.1039/D1SE00345C
- Genge, L., & Müsgens, F. (2025). Green Ammonia: A Techno-Economic Supply Chain Optimization (Version 1). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/ARXIV.2507.02412
- Cava, C., Gagliardi, G. G., Piscolla, E., & Borello, D. (2025). Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Transport via Truck Using Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers. Processes, 13(4), 1081. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13041081
- Cabrera, G., Mora, M., Gil-Burgos, J. P., Visbal, R., Machuca-Martínez, F., & Mosquera-Vargas, E. (2024). Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier Concepts and Catalysts for Hydrogenation and Dehydrogenation Reactions. Molecules, 29(20), 4938. https://doi.org/10.3390/molecules29204938
- Jangir, J., & Jagirdar, B. R. (2025). Unveiling the Potential of Heterogeneous Systems for Reversible Hydrogen Storage in Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers. ChemSusChem, 18(5), e202402018. https://doi.org/10.1002/cssc.202402018
- Cai, Z., Zou, C., Jiang, X., Liu, L., Chen, Y., Zhuang, W., Shakir, I., Peng, H., Hu, W. (Walter), Sun, X., & Yao, Y. (2025). Toward a green hydrogen economy: Progress, economic feasibility, and challenges of liquid organic hydrogen carriers. Green Chemistry, 27(41), 12856–12887. https://doi.org/10.1039/D5GC02275D
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